Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,220$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,635.0}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(102,635.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,589$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(821 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,459.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,459.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,567$ on 2020-05-09

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,115$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,428.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(136,428.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,739$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(387 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,904.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,904.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,896$ on 2020-05-09

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,454$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,219.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(16,219.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $247$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(36.7 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242.9}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(242.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,831$ on 2020-05-09

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,417$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,835.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 64.8)}}\) (asimptote \(20,835.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $185$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.84 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{373.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(373.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,937$ on 2020-05-09

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $892$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(157 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{873.2}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(873.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(5.97 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 12.0)}}\) (asimptote \(14.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $476$ on 2020-05-09

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,623$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(33.8 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,151.8}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(52,151.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.5}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 27.5)}}\) (asimptote \(59.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,952$ on 2020-05-09

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,136$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(565 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,181.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(56,181.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $239$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(26.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{308.6}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(308.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,753$ on 2020-05-09

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,610$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,098.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,098.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $704$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(68.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{729.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(729.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,064$ on 2020-05-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Thailand recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Taiwan* recovered 77%
Uzbekistan recovered 64%
Israel recovered 51%
Turkey recovered 46%
Malaysia recovered 40%
Japan recovered 23%
Georgia recovered 13%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,990$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(102.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,430.4}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,430.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,410.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,410.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $226$ on 2020-05-09

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,004$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(899 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,924.4}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 19.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,924.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(22.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.4}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 10.3)}}\) (asimptote \(54.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-05-09

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,874$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,387.1}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,387.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $256$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(56.7 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(259.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,008$ on 2020-05-09

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(86.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{430.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(430.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-09

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-05-09